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The weather is always interesting in Alabama in late March and early April. Lets break it down one day at a time:
TODAY: A weak impulse is producing showers across North Alabama this morning. Amount should be relatively light, and most of the rain should be east of the state by late morning. The afternoon will be dry. And, the CAD pattern (the wedge of colder air that moved into much of Alabama from the east yesterday) will slowly break down, so today should be warmer. Still, the far eastern part of the state will be rather cool.
To the west, SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, with a slight risk from roughly Dallas/Fort Worth to Chicago. Tornado warnings are up as I write this for parts of Northeast Oklahoma.
TOMORROW: The core of the system that is producing severe weather to the west of Alabama will move well to the north of us, meaning the chance of major severe weather problems are small. But, we will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as the weakening front moves into Alabama. Looks like about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain with this.
WEDNESDAY: The old front will be stalled somewhere across the central part of Alabama. A shower could pop up somewhere along or south of the front, but we believe much of the day will be dry with a few intervals of sunshine.
THURSDAY: The front lifts northward as a warm front. Temperatures will really warm-up; perhaps reaching 80 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. A few widely scattered afternoon storms could fire up during the heat of the day, but widespread rain is not expected Thursday.
FRIDAY: Another good round of showers and storms is likely. A few strong storms will be possible; after all, Friday is April 4, you know. But, having said that, the primary surface low will be well to the north, and the upper forcing is not overly impressive. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch look likely. We will fine tune the severe weather threat as we go along this week.
SATURDAY: The 00Z GFS has introduced the idea of a wave of low pressure on the front, which would mean another round of showers and storms on Saturday. Lets take a look at the 12Z GFS before we go hog wild on this idea…
SUNDAY/MONDAY: For now, these days look dry and mild.
We should note for the growers we see no sign of any freezing weather threat for the next seven days. And, of course, the deeper we get into April, the chance of one more freeze will continue to lessen.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight; the topic will be the April 3-4, 1974 Superoutbreak of tornadoes, and we will have a number of special guests that lived and worked that event. We will have it posted by 10:00 or so.
I am headed this morning to speak at Gadsden City High School… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
