Showers are starting to form across central Alabama this afternoon. There is even some lightning in the storm that has formed along the Bibb/Shelby County line between West Blocton and Montevallo. Everything, including this storm is moving north northeast in a generally southerly low level flow. We could be seeing a concentrated area of showers and storms forming generally in the I-65 corridor between Chilton and Jefferson Counties.
Factors involved in this afternoon’s forecast include:
1. A stationary frontal system near the Tennessee/Alabama border that is slowly fizzling
2. An upper level low over southern Mississippi and a surface low over southern Arkansas that is pulling moisture northward into South Alabama
3. Decent moisture levels in the I-20 corridor with preciptable water totals running around 2 inches (supportive of heavy rain). We are starting to already see this as mentioned above.
4. a good bit of clouds remaining over the area, limiting heating.
The early morning storms splitting left and right meant the US-78/280 corridor has been high and dry through the morning, which could prove interesting this afternoon for storm development. With leftover outflow boundaries to the left and right and untapped air in between, the corridor could see storms this afternoon. The lows to the west will pull moisture northeastward into Northeast Alabama, enhancing rain chances over there this afternoon.
The front will enhance rain chances over the Tennessee Valley.
The higher moisture in the I-20 corridor means scattered storms starting around mid-afternoon. We are already starting to see that. It is being enhanced a bit by energy that traveled southwestward from this morning’s storms over Northeast Alabama.
Look out for lightning and heavy rain from the storms that do form this afternoon. They could also produce strong gusty winds. Can’t rule out a couple of severe reports as well if any storms really get going. Keep this in mind for your outdoor activities.
Brian did a great job explaining affects on this afternoon temperatures in his post, which follows.
