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ON THE MAPS: An upper trough has formed north of Alabama as expected this morning, and that means the “heat ridge” will be much weaker today, and the air aloft will be colder. This, and an approaching surface front from the north, will mean a better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Alabama today. No, it won’t rain everywhere, but most communities stand a decent chance of getting wet a time or two this afternoon or tonight. The chance of any one place getting wet is about 50/50.
SPC has a narrow “slight risk” of severe weather in place for parts of North and Northeast Alabama this afternoon… we might see a strong storm or two, but the positives (needed rain, cooler temps, etc) certainly outweigh any negatives today. The high will be close to 90 degrees for most communities.
TOMORROW: As we begin the weekend drier air will begin to creep into North Alabama. Looks like the Tennessee Valley (north of U.S. 278) will be mostly dry, but I think we need to hang on to some risk of scattered showers and storms elsewhere. We have to remember this is the middle of summer, and surface fronts just don’t plow through Alabama this time of the year. But, by Sunday, most of North and Central Alabama should be in drier and and the risk of a shower will be small, although the eastern counties could very well see a shower or two during the afternoon and evening hours. The high both days should be in the mid 90s, and humidity levels could very well be a tad lower Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Pretty decent consistency in the GFS… showers will be few and far between Monday and Tuesday, but the pattern looks good for much better rain chances Wednesday through Thursday as the heat bubble moves well to the west, and a mean upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: We expect fairly routine summer weather on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend; about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 87-90 degree range, and sea water temperatures are in the upper 80s.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend. A vast amount of dry air covers the Atlantic from the deserts of Africa, inhibiting development.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the weekend!
