Things appear to be coming together for a potential severe weather event in Alabama on Friday and Friday night.
With the sun getting stronger and Gulf water temperatures now in the 60s and 70s, humidity and instability are easier to come by than they were in February. The GFS is faster with the system, bringing the storms in as early as noon on Friday, while the NAM holds off until Friday afternoon and evening. But, both models show CAPE values over 1000 J/kg as far north as BHM, with the GFS even showing values over 2000 J/kg in south Alabama.
Right now, it looks like the strongest wind shear with this storm will stay to our north. However, with plenty of instability, the forecast 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of 150-200 m2/s2 would be sufficient for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes.
No need for alarm yet; this storm is still two days away and things could change. However, we will have to keep an eye on this system. We are currently near the peak of the Spring severe weather season here in Alabama. At least we should get another 1″ of rainfall.
