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Looks like our surface boundary is just north of Birmingham at mid-afternoon… the dewpoint at the Birmingham SKYCAM site is 61, while the Jasper dewpoint is 51. So far, hardly any showers along the front, although a few showers are showing up on radar over South Alabama in deeper moisture between Mobile and Eufaula.
TOMORROW: Looks like a day with temperatures in the low 80s near the Mississippi border, and low 60s near the Georgia border thanks to another wedge moving in from the east. Scattered showers and storms will fire up tomorrow afternoon during the heat of the day, and there might even be a few strong thunderstorms as some decent instability is now showing up, especially west of I-65.
To the west, a significant severe weather episode is likely tomorrow in the general area from Abilene and Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas to Fort Smith and Harrison, Arkansas; SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather up for this region.
FRIDAY: The latest guidance suggests the best chance of strong to severe storms will come from about 3:00 p.m. Friday through 3:00 a.m. Sunday. Surface based CAPE values will rise to over 1,000 j/kg by early afternoon south of I-20, and there seems to be a window for discreet supercell storms Friday afternoon and Friday evening ahead of the primary squall line. These storms could produce hail, strong winds, and they will have the potential for isolated tornadoes are well with decent helicity values in place. Then, Friday night, a squall line will move through with the potential for damaging straight line winds.
Looks like most communities can expect one inch of rain with this system; some isolated amounts of up to two inches are possible near the Tennessee border.
THE WEEKEND: The rain should end during the early morning hours Saturday, and the sky should clear during the day Saturday with a high close to 70. Sunday looks like a nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s.
NEXT WEEK: We will have to watch that disturbance passing north of Alabama Monday; for now we will leave the forecast dry, but at some point we might have to mention a chance of a shower Monday afternoon. The weather still looks dry on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The 12Z GFS now continues the trend of strong ridging building into the Southeast U.S. by the middle of the week, deflecting the big western storm to the north. This would mean a greatly reduced chance of severe weather late next week. In fact, the 12Z GFS delays the rain now until Saturday, April 12.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Now the GFS shows the late season cold snap centered on Sunday April 13…. while there is no way to deal with this specifically, just understand the idea of a late season frost sometime at mid-month is still on the table.
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PRIME TIME TV SPECIAL: Join ABC 33/40 on the occasional of the tenth anniversary of the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado for a prime time weather special. The show will air from 6:30 until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, April 8; for one hour we will look back at this historic storm, through the eyes of those that covered the storm for ABC 33/40, and those in the path of the storm who survived. We will also be going to a live memorial service at Open Door Church, one of the many churches who lost their building that horrible Wednesday night.
I had a great time with the 2nd graders this morning at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover… be watching for them tonight on the KIDCAM at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
