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As we noted yesterday, it does appear that the northwesterly flow over the next couple of days will keep the weather active for us in Alabama. Yesterday afternoon we saw a cluster of thunderstorms make it into Tennessee before dissipating. This morning, a couple of small clusters were bringing a few showers to the Birmingham area as well as a slightly larger cluster between Memphis and Jackson in West Tennessee. SPC has outlooked an area including the western half of Alabama and much of Mississippi for a slight risk for today with localized wind damage being the biggest threat. Radar on the larger scale showed thunderstorms already in northern Missouri with an impulse that will likely move to the southeast in the northwesterly flow pattern.
The northwesterly flow maintains itself Tuesday with the ridge to the west and the trough along the eastern US. So we can expect a similar pattern with isolated severe thunderstorms possible. Timing will be the tricky part, but it looks like the best shot for the thunderstorms will come later this afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday afternoon. Burt the timing may have to be adjusted as the overall pattern evolves.
The upper flow shifts slightly by mid-week to put us back into the daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evenings. The ridge breaks down by the end of the week and into the weekend which also weakens the trough over the eastern US. This will help to keep things warm to hot with highs in the mid 90s and morning lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Fortunately the GFS long range outlook is now shying away from building a big ridge over the eastern US as it establishes another trough. But then that is the nature of how modeling works out in voodoo country. I like this looks as compared to yesterday’s because it means some rain chances and no extreme heat. Let’s hope the models don’t flip tomorrow.
In the tropics, there is the area of cloudiness in the eastern Atlantic that I mentioned yesterday. Only a small chance of it becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
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James Spann is off this week, so we are on a one a day schedule of Weather Xtreme Videos. Do stay tuned to the Blog for updates on the weather. I expect to have the next one posted by 8 am or so on Tuesday morning. I hope you get some rain today or tomorrow since we can really use it (see Bill’s discussion of the drought conditions below. Godspeed.
-Brian-
