Well, July certainly went out in a big way with a huge thunderstorm complex (or complexes) that produced a variety of severe weather and flooding especially in Jefferson and Shelby counties. That complex of thunderstorms which exploded late last night as a small upper disturbance moved southeastward in the northwesterly flow was off the Gulf coast early this afternoon leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies in its wake as the water from 4 to 6 inches of rainfall began to recede from those flooded creeks such as Buck Creek in Helena, Pelham, and Alabaster.
Around 3:30 pm radar showed a few showers developing in the warm, moist air over northern Georgia and parts of northeastern Alabama. These appeared to be more of the garden variety summer showers that were moving from north to south in the upper air flow.
The latest GFS model run continued to suggest a weakening of the northwesterly flow over the next couple of days as the ridge over the Rockies edges slightly eastward. That together with a strong upper level trough moving across southern Canada during the last of the week and into the weekend will dampen the ridge and the trough which should put us back into a more typical summer pattern with daily scattered showers. However, until the northwesterly flow is completely dampened we will need to be vigilant for any disturbances in that flow that could produce another mesoscale convective complex like we saw this morning. Models do not typically handle this kind of situation well, so we must keep a watchful eye to the northwest. Last nights system also developed right in our backyard, so to speak, as opposed to developing further off and moving into Alabama. That close explosive development gave us little time to provide updated forecasts.
Temperatures and humidity will remain unchanged. Look for morning lows in the lower and mid 70s while afternoon highs will climb mainly into the mid 90s.
-Brian-
PS Quick personal note: I recorded 4.74 inches of rain early this morning at my house which almost doubled my July rainfall to slightly over 10 inches.
