The Hurricane Hunters found tropical storm force winds in Tropical Depression Five, so it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI…475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
Tropical storm warnings issued for Barbadoes, St. Vincent, The Grenadines, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadaloupe.
Don’t look for much strengthening over the eastern and central Caribbean. The forecast has Ernesto reaching hurricane intensity by Monday.
In five days, it will be knocking on the door of the Gulf of Mexico.
MODELS
…GFS takes it over the Yucatan next Wednesday night and then just south of Brownsville next Friday night.
…Canadian takes it to northeastern tip of Yucatan Tuesday morning. It would then enter the Gulf.
…European kills it over the Central Caribbean
…GFDL carries it over western Cuba next Monday night toward the Gulf
…Navy NOGAPS carries it inot the southern Gulf north of Yucatan by Tuesday
…HWRF brings it to south of Cuba as a solid category one hurricane by Tuesday
