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It looks like the overall storminess we’ve been experiencing here will continue with us for the next several days along with some additional action to watch in the tropics.
This morning we continue to be under a weakness aloft that has kept us in a northwesterly flow pattern. Weak disturbances riding along this northwest flow have again generated a cluster of thunderstorms located over West Tennessee that will be affecting Alabama this morning with additional showers possible this afternoon. The severe weather risk is likely to come in the form of damaging wind with the thunderstorm cluster but SPC does not have a slight risk area for us at this time. The timing of the cluster without the additional afternoon heating may keep the severe weather risk in check.
The overall pattern aloft does not change much today or tomorrow but we see the ridge to the west trying to connect with the Bermuda high to the east. The strong trough moving into the Great Lakes area today will keep this connection from becoming fully established as the trough helps to carve out troughiness along the eastern US once again as we get into Sunday. This will also bring a front down into the Tennessee River Valley which will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. But the good news is that with all the rain and storms and clouds it should keep the temperatures in check with highs only getting into the lower 90s. And some spots might only see highs in the mid 80s due to timing of showers.
The troughiness aloft stays with us into the end of next week and could be a player in the future track of Ernesto.
Ernesto is moving through the Windward Islands as a somewhat disorganized tropical storm. Conditions in the eastern Caribbean are not especially favorable for much additional intensification, however, that changes as the storm approaches the western Caribbean. Ernesto is forecast to become a hurricane late Sunday or early Monday as it nears Jamaica. And it seems highly likely that Ernesto will be a Gulf storm with some potential of becoming a major hurricane. Right now the important information is that all interests in the Gulf should be keeping a watchful eye on Ernesto. The various computer guidance has a fairly large spread in where the storm is going by the middle of next week, so the uncertainty is quite high. I am not completely convinced this will be a western Gulf storm as the GFS suggests. The presence of the trough over the eastern half of the country could be a factor in the future track of Ernesto.
The GFS is back to the long range solution of a big ridge over the eastern US. Confidence in this not very high at the moment since we’ve seen this come and go a couple of times this week.
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Lots of weather for weather watching – never a dull moment. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted on Saturday morning by 8 am or so. Stay tuned to the Blog for the latest on the weather affecting Central Alabama. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
