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Our stormy weather pattern seems to keep a strong hold on the Southeast US and today should see another round of storms for much of Alabama. Some subtle changes are coming with the approach of a cold front on Sunday and Monday.
The ridge to our west and the Bermuda high to our east begin to work toward each other today and Sunday, but a strong trough moving across into the western Great Lakes today and Sunday will nudge the ridge back toward the west. As that trough moves into New England on Sunday and Monday, a new trough comes quickly behind the first trough to reinforce the troughiness over the eastern half of the country. So while we see a subtle change in the pattern, we end up pretty much with a trough over the eastern half of the US as we have been seeing for the last week.
While all of these changes are occurring, the air mass over the South does not change so we stay in a stormy pattern with showers and thunderstorms likely each day. By Sunday and especially Monday, we see the approach of the cold front into the Tennessee River Valley which should also help to increase shower and rain chances for much of the Southeast US and Central Alabama. Rainfall amounts over the next 4 to 5 days are likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch category, but due to the showery nature of storms a few spots could still see much lighter amounts.
SPC has a slight risk for severe storms generally along and just ahead of the cold front moving toward us. SPC also maintains an outlook for isolated severe storms in our vicinity for the next three days with damaging wind the greatest threat.
Once the trough gets reestablished over the eastern third of the country, we should once again see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for the latter half of the upcoming week.
Perhaps the good news is that even with the humidity and the daily development of showers and thunderstorms we should see no extreme heat with highs for the next week primarily in the lower 90s and morning lows in the lower 70s. I can’t help but look forward to the first good cold front of the fall heralding some much drier air!
Tropics have heated some more. Ernesto is moving steadily on a track across the Caribbean Sea. It looks like it will become a Gulf storm by Thursday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Watch the video for my concerns for the eastern Gulf. Most of the model guidance has focused on a westerly course that could take Ernesto into Mexico.
And while doing the video this morning, the NHC has upgraded TD 6 to Florence. Florence may have a tough road ahead with conditions not looking good and the potential for it to fall back to depression status in a few days. But for now Florence is a long way from any land area.
The GFS has done another flip on the long range forecast with more of a trough instead of a ridge for the eastern US. This flipping is fairly common in voodoo country, and we have really been seeing this over the last week. GFS does has a substantial looking tropical system in the Central Atlantic around the 19th.
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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I expect to have the next edition posted by 7:30 or 8 on Sunday morning. I hope your day is a good one. Godspeed.
-Brian-
