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GREETINGS FROM CHICAGO: First off thanks to Brian Peters, Ashley Brand, Bill Murray, J.P. Spann, and J.B. Elliott for covering various duties for me last week. I take three vacation weeks a year, and always try and squeeze in two of them during the summer. I really appreciated the chance to get away; spent part of the week in New York City, and unfortunately due to weather issues our flight was delayed, and we missed the connecting flight back home, so I am writing this from the Windy City this morning. Just enjoyed a nice sunrise over the city skyline.
THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: First off, the great news is that temperatures should be at or just below seasonal averages this week. And, considering the fact this is the first week of August, that is great news. Like I have stated here in recent weeks, I firmly believe the hottest part of the summer of 2012 was the nasty heat we had to endure back in late June and the first day of July. Temperatures this week should peak in the 89 to 92 degree range as the mean upper ridge over the nation remains well to the west.
On the maps, we have a stalled front just north and west of here, so look for more developing showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Like recent days, they will tend to be somewhat scattered; any one neighborhood stands about a 50/50 chance of getting wet. And, some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds, lots of lightning, and very heavy rain. Some localized flooding issues are possible.
REST OF THE WEEK: No real change. Each day we will have scattered to numerous showers and storms, generally during the afternoon and evening hours. However, along the way we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower if a few small scale boundaries are around. We will have intervals of sunshine away from the showers, and afternoon highs will be pretty close to 90 degrees.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The 00Z GFS tries to bring drier air down into Alabama Saturday and Sunday, which if correct would mean fewer showers and thunderstorms and increasing amounts of sunshine. But, we all know fronts rarely push through here in August, so for now I think we need to just roll with the typical summer formula for the weekend (partly sunny with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”). We will fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any excessively hot weather for Alabama through mid-August as the main heat ridge remains well to the west. We note the GFS shows some kind of tropical system just off the East Coast of the U.S. in 15 days or so; see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TROPICS: Florence out in the Central Atlantic is basically dying; it is void of convection this morning and has been downgraded to a tropical depression. I don’t expect it to survive past 24 hours as dry air chokes this one off.
Ernesto, in the Caribbean, is packing sustained winds of 50 mph, and will move into Belize tomorrow night. It might get back over the Bay of Campeche briefly before going into Mexico, but NHC keeps the intensity below hurricane strength. Needless to say, this is far, far south of here and will not impact the Central Gulf Coast in any way.
AT THE BEACH: Fairly routine weather is expected this week along the Gulf Coast. For the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, expect about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of any one spot seeing a passing storm is in the 40 percent range daily, and highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range along the immediate coast. A buoy just south of Pensacola this morning showers the SST (sea surface temperature) at 86 degrees.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… and needless to say we will discuss the tragic lightning death at a NASCAR event in Pennsylvania yesterday. You can watch live here.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
