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ACTIVE AUGUST WEATHER: This is the time of the year when the forecast rarely changes… hot, humid, scattered afternoon storms, etc. But, this morning we actually have some fairly significant changes to discuss.
An anomalously deep upper trough will form over the eastern third of the nation today, and will set the stage for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow thanks to the colder air aloft and better dynamic forcing. Rain totals will be all over the place, but average amounts should be near one inch. And, a few strong storms are possible; the northwest corner of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for today and tonight.
Temperatures will trend downward because of the clouds and showers; most places won’t get out of the 80s today and tomorrow.
REFRESHING WEEKEND: The weather on Saturday and Sunday looks great. Lots of sun, lower humidity, and cooler nights. You rarely hear us say that in August… the GFS is printing a high of only 86 degrees on Saturday with dewpoints dropping into the 50s, and by daybreak Sunday most places will be somewhere between 60 and 65 degrees. The cooler valleys of North Alabama have a great chance of reaching the upper 50s for a delightful preview of fall.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels slowly rise. We will need to mention an outside risk of a shower Monday, with a better chance of scattered showers and storms Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TROPICS: Ernesto is at the far southern part of the Bay of Campeche, hugging the Mexican coast as it moves west. The disturbance, formerly known as Tropical Storm Florence, is northeast of the Leeward Islands and is not expected to develop. But, out in the Central Atlantic, a disturbance about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles now has a 70 percent chance of developing (according to NHC). Most models bring this toward the Caribbean; remains to be seen if it will be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS ensembles show this one acting like Ernesto.
And, we should mention a very organized tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa, and that will have potential for development as well. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
