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TODAY: As expected, low clouds have formed across most of Alabama this morning; we figure those low clouds will give way to a partly sunny afternoon, with temperatures rising well into the 70s again. To the west, severe storms are in progress across Northeast Oklahoma, but those should stay north of Alabama.
MID-WEEK: A significant severe weather period is likely across the Southern Plains tomorrow and Thursday as a deep upper trough develops and begins to move eastward. There is a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow near the Red River (the Texas/Oklahoma border), and a moderate risk Thursday in the general area from Shreveport to Paducah. There could be some long track, violent tornadoes in this region Thursday, and the risk includes places like Monroe, Little Rock, and Memphis.
A weakening cold front will bring a few showers and storms down into Tennessee tomorrow; some of those could reach Alabama tomorrow night, but the front should stop and reverse itself because of the deepening trough to the west. So, we will mention a chance of scattered showers Wednesday night and Thursday in a rather moist airmass, but no wash-out, and rain during this time should be rather light and spotty.
FRIDAY: The big trough will impact Alabama at the end of the week on Friday with showers and thunderstorms. Parameters seem to be in place for severe storms; SBCAPE values are in the 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg range Friday afternoon, with 0 to 3 km helicity values in the 200 to 400 m2/s2 range. Looks like another very active Friday for Alabama; we will fine tune the threat as the week progresses, but at this point it looks like severe weather will be possible anytime from 10:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m.
CHILLY WEEKEND: Much cooler air rolls into Alabama following Friday’s storms. Highs will drop into the 60s on Saturday, and it is possible that we won’t get out of the 50s Sunday. Very cold air aloft in association with the upper trough will mean some risk of lingering showers over the weekend, although precipitation amounts should be light.
The 00Z GFS is printing 38 for Birmingham early Monday morning… but it now looks like there could be some clouds in place at that time, which would prevent a widespread frost. However, the surface high will be right over us Tuesday morning (April 15), which now looks like the coldest morning with the highest potential for frost. Some of the colder valleys might even flirt with freezing temperatures. We will adjust that forecast as needed in coming days.
VOODOO LAND: The 00Z GFS looks rather quiet in the medium range period with no major events in the April 16-23 time, but that could change. This is April in Alabama, you know, with an active La Nina pattern in place.
RADAR STATUS UPDATE: I will try to find out whats up with our radar later today… still waiting on a magnetron; the minute it comes in we will get on the mountain and get it online.
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