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The models are trending wetter for the weekend. Today, a few widely scattered showers could fire up this afternoon, but rain should rather light and spotty with little in the way of dynamic forcing. Most of the really active convection today will be from Del Rio, Texas to Milwaukee, where SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms.
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY: The models are pushing the first of two cold fronts deeper into Alabama tomorrow, which means a better coverage of showers and storms. While it don’t rain all day, it could rain at any time. Some thunderstorms will be involved, but the chance of organized severe weather looks rather small at this point.
That front will stall out over the central part of Alabama, and just hang around through Sunday, meaning Sunday will be another mostly cloudy day with a good chance of a few showers and storms. We do note the NAM tries to bring drier air in here Sunday following the first front, and keeps much of the day dry. But, that run seems to be an outlier.
Assuming clouds and showers hang around Sunday, the clouds and showers will limit instability for the next front due in here Sunday night, which could very well limit any severe weather risk. All of the showers and storms should end late Sunday night as as the second front sweeps to the east.
The NAM is printing 0.49″ of rain this weekend for Birmingham, while the GFS is wetter with 0.73″. The guys at HPC are much more aggressive with rain totals, suggesting amounts of two inches are possible for North Alabama. I think the idea of around one inch is the best solution for now.
TALLADEGA RACES: Odds of a rain delay are looking higher for both weekend races at the Talladega Superspeedway, but there is still a pretty good chance both races will be run over the weekend. Daytime temperatures will hold in the 70s with clouds and showers. NASCAR officials will probably be glued to the radar.
NEXT WEEK: Much cooler air returns to Alabama Monday with a clearing sky. We won’t get out of the 60s Monday, and we will drop down into the low to mid 40s by Tuesday morning. The middle part of next week looks very nice with dry and pleasant spring weather.
LONG RANGE: No major storm systems show up for the first 10 days in May, but a couple of rain opportunities show up along the way. No confidence in any specific solution with little run to run consistency.
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