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Warm and windy weather is the story for Alabama today with a mix of sun and clouds. While we can’t rule out the chance of an afternoon shower, most of the action will remain west of Alabama. SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms from Vicksburg, MS to Springfield, IL (see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics).
The big batch of storms should enter Northwest Alabama late tonight, slowing moving to the east/southeast during the pre-dawn hours as they slowly weaken.
TOMORROW: The amount of cloud cover and the extent of the morning rain will greatly determine our severe weather possibilities tomorrow. If we get some good intervals of sunshine during the morning, instability values will be much higher and storms that de-develop during the afternoon could be severe. On the other hand, if clouds hang around all day, that will limit any severe weather threat.
The GFS/NAM forecast surface based CAPE values are in the 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg range, certainly supportive of severe weather. Helicity values seem to weaken with time, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Average rain amounts of one inch are likely, with isolated amounts to 1.5 inches.
Drier air returns tomorrow night, and Sunday and Monday will feature a good supply of sunshine with highs in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like showers could return as early as Wednesday, but the most widespread rain next week seems to be on Friday with a wave of low pressure moving along a stalled front across Alabama.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I will be speaking this morning at Shades Cahaha Elementary School in Homewood… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
