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No doubt we will have to deal with more severe weather before the weekend is over. Nailing down the details will be rather challenging. Lets take it one day at a time…
TODAY: Warm is the word… we will rise into the mid to upper 80s today, and for many places in Alabama it will be the warmest day so far this year. That warmth will lead to an unstable atmosphere, and with the old boundary from last night hanging around here somewhere, that means some risk of thunderstorm development, mostly in the 3:00 to 7:00 p.m. time frame. But, warm air aloft will serve as a cap, and could keep a lid on storm formation.
We will just mention a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening; if storms do develop they could be severe, and SPC has much of North Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is only about one in eight.
TOMORROW: Pretty much the same story tomorrow, but the air will be more unstable. The NAM suggests the surface based CAPE will rise to almost 3,000 j/kg during the late afternoon, and isolated storms could fire up, possibly severe. Once again, much of the day will be dry, but any storms that fire up during the heat of the day could produce hail and damaging winds. The best chance of a storm tomorrow afternoon will come after 3:00 p.m.
TOMORROW NIGHT/SUNDAY: SPC has parts of West Alabama in a moderate risk of severe weather as a dynamic upper trough approaches. At this point, it looks like the main severe weather threat associated with the trough will come from about 9:00 p.m. Saturday until 12:00 p.m. Sunday. Wind profiles, lapse rates, and forecast instability values suggest a significant severe weather episode could unfold across Alabama, including the possibility of tornadoes. Best possible case is that the active weather comes through during the pre-dawn hours Sunday when the air is most stable, but even if that happens we sure can’t rule out severe weather due to the dynamics involved.
The best chance of severe weather should shift to the east of Alabama by Sunday afternoon.
We stress that the timing could change, and I encourage all of you to keep up with our updates here on the blog as the weekend event gets closer.
More beneficial rain is possible over the weekend; amounts of one to two inches are likely.
NEXT WEEK: Drier and cooler air moves into the state for Monday; the next system is due in here on Thursday, and it looks like those storms could pack a punch as well.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I will speak today at a dedication ceremony for a Habitat for Humanity home in Titusville; then I go back into the office and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted here by 3:30 or so, unless storms blow up this afternoon requiring our attention. Enjoy the day….
