The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion abotu the potential for severe storms across North and Central Alabama….
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED…NRN AND CENTRAL AL/MS AND POSSIBLY FAR SRN TN
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 100408Z – 100615Z
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AS MOIST CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER NERN MS…ALTHOUGH MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED IN NERN MS LATE THIS
EVENING…DESPITE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
BEING VERY WEAK OR ABSENT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER…WV IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SRN MO/NRN AR
ATTM…WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR INCREASE IN STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE TN VALLEY AS IT SHIFT ESEWD.
EVENING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS…ESPECIALLY INTO
AL WHERE MLCAPE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER…GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 45-50 KT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED NEGATIVES.
HOWEVER…AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY…
POSSIBLY AIDED BY APPROACH OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..EVANS.. 05/10/2008
ATTN…WFO…OHX…BMX…HUN…MEG…JAN…
