The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch to our west. It includes parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
The airmass to our west is destabilizing. A long stationary front lies across Central Mississippi and northern Mississippi back to along the Louisiana/Arkansas border where it is a warm front. Developing low pressure over Oklahoma will rapidly intensify through the day as it turns northeast ahead of a strong upper level disturbance. There is a good chance there will be a significant outbreak of severe weather to our west through the day and into the evening
Then tonight, a massive linear convective system will develop and race eastward overnight out of Arkansas. This will produce widespread wind damage.
Here in Alabama, the airmass is already unstable. There is a small cap in place. As the low clouds erode, temperatures will soar into the 80s. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, CAPE values will soar to 2000-3000 j/kg. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon especially near the weak boundary across Central Alabama, and they will have the potential to produce damaging winds and some hail. We will be watching them.
We are in a moderate risk area for severe weather, mainly for tonight’s event. Today’s activity will be less widespread.
There may be a bit of a lull this evening as the focus shifts from heating of the day acting on a warm, moist environment and weak boundary to one that is more driven by strong upper level dynamics. There could be discrete supercells that form late this evening as the upper trough approaches. These would have the chance to produce tornadoes possibly.
As the low and upper trough shifts east and northeast, a strong cold front will push eastward. Ahead of it, a powerful derecho is likely to form. This is a long lived squall line that produces wind damage over a wide area. This will be something to contend with during the pre-dawn hours into early Sunday. There could also be tornadoes embedded within the main line.
The timing for tonight’s main event will be roughtly 10 p.m. until 6 a.m.
Everyone should review their severe weather plans. You will want to have a source of weather information that will keep you informed about watches and warnings. Good time to get that NOAA Weatheradio, with yet another night time event in store. Make sure your WR is turned on to the right station and programmed properly to alert you.
It will be the kind of night where you will want to make sure you can be in a safe place as the storms approach. Remember, a lot of people get killed when trees crash into homes and mobile homes. Manufactured housing is especially vulnerable to thunderstorm and tornado winds. Know where your safe place is and get to it BEFORE the storm hits.
Don’t worry. Just stay INFORMED and SAFE!
