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We will mention the chance of showers across today with increasing moisture levels, but the rain won’t be especially widespread, and it certainly won’t rain all day. The sky will be mostly cloudy with a high in the 70s.
Most of the action today will be to the west; big storms are ongoing this morning over the Texas Hill Country. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather up for much of East Texas, Louisiana, and the southwest part of Mississippi.
TOMORROW: This will be the wettest day of the week for Alabama, and we will forecast a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight severe weather risk, but the severe weather parameters aren’t exactly overwhelming, with surface based CAPE values around 500 j/kg, and 0 to 3 km helicity values under 200 m2/s2. So, I really don’t see a major severe weather event, but a few strong to severe storms are certainly possible.
Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely; the 00Z NAM is printing 1.23″ for Birmingham.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: I really think Friday will be dry; looks like the rain will end late tomorrow night for most of Alabama. Drier and cooler air will roll in here Friday with the sky becoming partly sunny during the day. Models are trending cooler; we might have a hard time getting out of the 60s Friday with a cool north breeze. The weather for the weekend still looks dry and pleasant with a high in the mid to upper 70s. A weak impulse riding down the back side of the eastern U.S. upper trough Sunday, but the low levels will be very dry and we will just mention a few scattered clouds.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is showing cold fronts on Tuesday and Thursday with a chance of showers on both days, but heavy rain or severe weather doesn’t look likely. Temperatures next week should remain below average values for mid to late May with the eastern U.S. upper trough staying in place.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS keeps flipping and flopping between an upper ridge and an upper trough in the late May period… the 00Z run is back on the upper trough bandwagon, which would suggest below average temperatures for the rest of the month around here. Needless to say, no real confidence in the land of voodoo at this point.
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