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WET TOMORROW: I am still not very bullish on the idea of a major severe weather threat here in Alabama tomorrow, although SPC keeps all of the state in a slight risk of severe weather. Surface CAPE values are well under 1,000 j/kg, and the best helicity values are north and east of here. We might see a few strong to severe storms, but at this point I just don’t expect a big problem.
I do think we see some pretty decent rain amounts, unless a big thunderstorm complex sets up on the Gulf coast and shuts off the good inflow of moisture into North Alabama. The 12Z NAM has come in a little drier with 0.90″ for Birmingham, but the GFS prints 1.24″. Still looks like we get one to two inches of rain for most of the state, with the heaviest coming south of Montgomery.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: I still think Friday will be dry with a clearing sky and cooler temperatures. Some parts of North Alabama might have a hard time getting out of the 60s with a cool north breeze.
Saturday looks like a wonderful day, with lots of sun and a high in the mid to upper 70s. A disturbance riding down the back side of the eastern U.S. upper trough will bring scattered clouds Sunday, but for now we don’t see a significant chance of rain with very dry air in the low levels.
NEXT WEEK: A cold front will bring a chance of showers Tuesday, but the rain won’t be heavy, and no threat of severe weather. Then, more rain is possible later in the week on Thursday and Friday.
VOODOO LAND: Almost laughable to watch the GFS alternate between a hot bubble of high pressure aloft, and a cool upper trough over the eastern U.S. during the latter part of May. The 12Z run is back on the summer bandwagon with a 5880 meter 500 mb ridge over Alabama.
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