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Wet is the word, but the question for today is how much? And, what about the chance of severe weather?
RIGHT NOW: A tornado watch is up for much of Central and South Mississippi and East Louisiana. A line of strong to severe storms is rolling through Louisiana, and if that holds together it will pass through the southern half of Mississippi and Alabama this morning. There is a very real chance this convective mass will disrupt the inflow of moisture into North Alabama, reducing our rain amounts up here. So, we will lean toward the heaviest rain today over the southern half of Alabama.
Clouds and light to moderate rain over North Alabama this morning will also limit instability (CAPE values remain generally below 700 j/kg today), which will also limit the severe weather risk today. But, model forecast helicity has actually increased, so we will be watching the radar closely. Remember, when it comes to thunderstorms expect the unexpected. But, I really don’t think today will be a major severe weather day for the northern half of the state.
If the South Alabama storms are not a big factor, we still project rain totals between one and two inches across the northern half of the state. The NAM shows 1.49″, while the GFS suggests 1.94″ for Birmingham. South Alabama has a good chance of seeing two to three inches of rain today with some potential for flash flooding.
TOMORROW: Drier air will begin to move into Alabama tomorrow, and it will be a slow process. In fact, I am beginning to think the clouds will linger much of the day. No doubt the best chance of showers will be south of Montgomery, and I do believe most of North Alabama will be dry. There might even be a lingering shower somewhere tomorrow morning around here, but at this moment I did not mention that in our formal forecast.
Saturday still looks like a beautiful day, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 70s. A disturbance will being some scattered clouds Sunday, but most of the showers should remain northeast of Alabama, and we will leave the forecast dry for now.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 00Z GFS has come in with a slightly different solution for next week; it now suggests the best chance of showers will come Wednesday and Friday (instead of Tuesday and Thursday, like we have in our forecast now). Lets see the 12Z run before we make any changes. The GFS shows a sharp upper trough over the eastern U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend, which could suggest cooler than average temperatures around here. Then, a ridge builds at the end of the month which would mean the warmest weather so far this year.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information today… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30, unless afternoon thunderstorms get out of hand. Enjoy the day!
