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Wow, what a variation in rainfall across Central Alabama yesterday. JB Elliott has a nice list of rainfall amounts, and one of the characteristics of that list that impresses me is the huge variation in amounts reported. While much of North and Central Alabama received rain, some locations got just a smidge like my location with only 2 tenths of an inch while others got flooding as a result of 2 to 3 inches of rain in just a couple of hours.
And showers and thunderstorms have kicked off a bit earlier today with a nice set of echoes on the radar screen already this morning. I can’t help but think the early start could result in two rounds of storms today if the atmosphere can recover after this first round this morning.
We continue to see small disturbances moving across the ridge which are enhancing rain chances now and perhaps again later today. These disturbances plus the weak frontal boundary plus a very moist and unstable air mass are all combining to produce the rain. And some spots could again see heavy rain due to the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere plus the really warm air in place. Wet microbursts are possible, but like yesterday, I doubt that we’ll see much hail just because the upper atmosphere is so warm.
The frontal boundary sags into South Alabama tomorrow but we could see a few showers. The upper ridge builds into the area on Friday, so I think Friday will be essentially dry. Friday we might see some isolated storms but I don’t believe we’ll see anything like today or the last couple of days.
After Friday, the character of the atmosphere returns to a summer-ish pattern. Another weak front may be dragged into the Southeast by Sunday which again would help to focus daily showers and thunderstorms. The ridge maintains itself to our west and with a trough on the East Coast, we might see a couple of degrees knocked off the highs with northwesterly flow aloft. I do note that the long range MOS guidance does not show that. And while the GFS is also not showing any thunderstorm clusters, northwesterly flow is always a flag to watch for those clusters to develop well northwest of here and travel hundreds of miles.
Slipping into voodoo country, the GFS continues to forecast something tropical but now it has a new twist. A weak upper low is indicated across Florida around the 6th with a fairly weak surface low. But instead of taking it into the Atlantic and whisking it away, the GFS now suggests it will be blocked by the ridge to the north and turn west bringing the weak surface low across South Alabama. Voodoo, voodoo, voodoo – but great conversation and speculation!! We’ll see.
I hope you have a great Wednesday. Stay dry. I should have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted between 7 and 8 tomorrow morning. God bless.
-Brian-
