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SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES: The main risk of organized severe storms will remain well to the northwest of Alabama today; SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up from far North Texas to Iowa later today and tonight, where there is a good combination of shear, instability, and dynamic support. Around here, our weather won’t change much through Saturday. Partly sunny days, mostly fair nights, and the risk of “scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. If you like the numbers game, the chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in four, and the high will be in the 86-89 degree range again.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: We expect an increase in the number of showers and storms on Sunday as a weakening front approaches Alabama from the northwest. It certainly won’t rain all day Sunday, but a shower or storm could come at any time. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and the high will be in the mid 80s.
The 00Z GFS brings in drier air Monday and Tuesday with a sunny sky both days along with lower humidity levels. Not sure this is correct, however, as there is a real chance the front stalls and dissipates just north of here. For now we will maintain some risk of scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday, and we can make adjustments later if needed.
BARBARA HANGING TOUGH: This system moved into the Pacific Coast of Mexico as a category one hurricane yesterday… it is now a tropical depression, but the core of the system is about to emerge into the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico. If by chance it retains it’s identity, it will keep the name Barbara over the Bay of Campeche.
This system should basically go nowhere over the next five to seven days… but the 00Z GFS brings it northward, with the tropical low moving into the Gulf Coast near Pensacola around June 8-9. Other runs have been more to the east; one way or another it looks like most of Alabama will be on the dry side of the circulation if by chance this does happen. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
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I am speaking at the Mildred Westervelt Warner Transportation Museum in Tuscaloosa today… Proceeds from the “Lunch and Learn with James Spann” will go to charities helping with the Oklahoma tornadoes. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
