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It just looks like the hot weather is going to roll on forever. Of course, we know that is not true. In fact the GFS is suggesting some changes may occur in the overall pattern. But it is summer and summertime patterns are slow to change.
A large upper ridge is planted over the Southeast US with a center over the Carolinas. A surface high was centered over the Southwest Atlantic. The two are combining to keep the Southeast and much of the eastern half of the country hot. I expect again today to see the mercury in our thermometers climb into the lower and mid 90s across the area.
While you can never rule out an isolated shower in the heat of the afternoon, any showers that do occur are likely to occur across South Alabama where there is a bit more convergence to focus the showers.
The GFS is suggesting that the upper ridge will migrate eastward and break down a bit on Monday and Tuesday as the strong trough to the west over the northern Rockies ejects eastward. This could bring a front down into the Ohio River Valley but it is not likely to reach the Tennessee River Valley. This could, however, create a bit better conditions for widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
But the ridge is quick to build back into the eastern half of the country by Thursday as strong as it is now. A new trough over the western US drops in and it butts heads with the ridge on Friday. The GFS predicts this trough to be stronger and to force the upper ridge east. The trough seems to have enough strength and amplitude to drive a front into our area on Sunday, June 15. That’s on the edge of voodoo, so we’ll have to watch to see how additional model runs handle this feature.
In voodoo country, the GFS is once again hinting at some nervousness in the tropics with a weakness in the upper pattern. While I’m optimistic that something like that could happen, the GFS track record on this type of solution is not good. So I think I’ll stick with hot weather and widely scattered storms.
I enjoyed filling in for Jason this past week and I hope he had a nice vacation. James Spann celebrated a birthday and an anniversary yesterday, but not matter how old he gets, I’ll always be older than he is. But none of us will be as old as JB!! Guess I better shut down before I get into real trouble. I hope that everyone has a great weekend. Thanks for sticking with the ABC 3340 weather blog – we appreciate your viewership. God bless.
-Brian-
