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As you know, weather changes in summertime here are not exactly dramatic. This week, the upper ridge that has been keeping most of Alabama hot and dry will weaken slightly, beaten down by a couple of strong waves passing to the north. You can see that temperatures in the 10,000 to 20,000 foot level will be cooler this week over Alabama in model output, and that cooling aloft should help in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in coming days.
As you might expect, the best chance of a passing shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but if we have any mesoscale boundaries around, a late night or morning shower sure can’t be ruled out. And, heat levels will back down. We should be in the low 90s today, with highs tomorrow and Wednesday in the 88 to 91 degree range, about where they should be this time of the year.
Rainfall distribution will be terribly uneven; one neighborhood might see over one inch of rain with some localized flooding, while the other side of town will be totally dry, although they can hear the thunder. Again, this is the way it goes on a summer afternoon in Alabama.
WEEKEND PEEK: The GFS continues to hint at a surface boundary moving into Alabama this weekend, which might actually enhance the coverage of scattered showers and storms. The model even hints that the surface boundary might reach I-20 Sunday, with drier air over North Alabama. That scenario is hard to buy this time of the year; for now we will just mention a chance of scattered showers and storms both days with highs in the 85 to 89 degree range.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like typical June weather is the story with a chance of scattered showers and storms in the June 16-22 time frame. I sure get the idea the worst of the heat is behind us, for this month (NOT counting July and August, of course!). No sign of any tropical trouble on model output.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight… it should be posted by 10:00 or so.
This week I will be at Double Oak Community Church in Mount Laurel on a daily basis speaking at their Summer Xtreme 2:52 for kids… I will be the “mad meteorologist” doing some wild and crazy stuff. Always a fun week. As time allows, I will crank out the afternoon Weather Xtreme videos this week, and J.B. will keep you posted on the thunderstorm situation as always. Enjoy the day!
