An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
THIS AFTERNOON: More showers and storm across Alabama this afternoon… at 3:30 some of the heavier ones were in a broad zone from near Gadsden to Calera to Centreville. Showers are moving to the east, and the heavier storms are producing lots of rain and lightning. Away from the storms, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures mostly in the upper 80s.
I say this is a tricky forecast for a number of reasons… including a surface front that should stall somewhere around here tomorrow, and a potential tropical wave late this week, or over the weekend.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will go ahead for forecast consistency and mention a good chance of showers and storms over the next 24 hours statewide. Some spots could see heavy rain, and some flooding issues are possible as a surface front moves down into North Alabama. Not sure we will get past the mid 80s tomorrow. But, we note some of the mesoscale models push the most widespread rain down into South Alabama during the day tomorrow with drier air moving into the northern half of the state. We can make adjustments as needed early tomorrow if this trend continues.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Where the surface front stalls will determine our weather Wednesday. For now, it looks like many places north of I-20 will have a dry day with slightly lower humidity values, while showers and storms remain possible along and south of I-20 (south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). The high Wednesday should be in the mid to upper 80s.
The front dissipates, and moisture moves northward, meaning some risk of showers and storms pretty much statewide on Thursday and Friday. The sun will be out at times, and the high will be somewhere between 85 and 89.
OUR WEEKEND: Low confidence forecast because a tropical feature could be involved. The most likely scenario is a tropical wave moving from the Central Gulf Coast up into Georgia over the weekend. If this is correct, the most widespread rain over the weekend will be south and east of Birmingham, with rain chances decreasing as you go north and west. But, we note the Canadian GEMS model is an outlier, showing a rather robust tropical storm moving up into Gulf Shores Saturday, and ultimately the Birmingham area late Saturday night. This solution is rejected for this forecast package.
Sunday should see fewer showers around here as the tropical wave moves northeast, away from Alabama. Highs over the weekend should hold in the mid to upper 80s.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 to 7 hours of sunshine tomorrow through Thursday, with 2 to 3 hours by Friday and the weekend. Showers and storms could become fairly numerous on the coast this weekend thanks to the tropical wave discussed above. Highs on the immediate coast should be in the mid to upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are in the 84-89 degree range from Panama City over to Gulf Shores.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show at 8:30p CT… you can watch on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around Alabama, or on the web here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram
I enjoyed speaking to the Shelby County child nutrition program meeting today… the lunchroom managers are gearing up for the new school year and I was honored to see them. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
