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A blanket of moist air will cover Alabama through Sunday, so we will be dodging showers and storms over the weekend at times.
Showers and storms should fire up after the lunch hour today, becoming numerous at times during the late afternoon and evening hours. Stronger storms will produce lots of lightning and heavy rain, and once again we will have to watch for wet microbursts.
THE WEEKEND: The models are backing off on rain coverage tomorrow; looks like today might be like yesterday with a decrease in the number of storms with a weak short wave east of Alabama. That would mean sinking air, which would offset the rising air motion due to the daytime heating process. Still, forecasting coverage of summer storms is a very tricky business, and we will certainly mention a chance of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.
Looks like Sunday will be the day with the best coverage of showers and storms with a strong upper trough developing from the Great Lakes down the Mississippi River enhancing the lift across the Deep South. Strong storms and heavy rain are likely during the afternoon hours.
Average rain amounts of one to two inches are likely through Sunday, but some spots could get more.
WEEKEND AT THE BEACH: The weather looks a bit on the wet side on the Gulf Coast this weekend. Even some hint at a weak tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico, which means more clouds than sun through Sunday with a good chance of showers and storms on a daily basis. There will be some sun at times, however, and the rain won’t be continuous. Just be aware that a shower or storm could blow up at almost any time. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. The water temperature last night at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 86 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: Drier air drops into North Alabama Sunday night, and it looks like most of the showers Monday will be over the southern half of Alabama. Tuesday and Wednesday are looking dry for most of the state.
Then, moisture returns northward by Thursday and Friday, meaning routine summer weather for Independence Day; partly sunny, hot, and humid with a passing afternoon storm in a few spots. Highs will be at or just over 90 degrees.
VOODOO LAND: The 00Z GFS hints at upper heights rising over much of the nation at mid-month with 500 mb heights of 5940 meters over the nation’s heartland. Still, lots of moisture shows up here with some risk of scattered showers and storms for at least some temporary cooling.
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I will be out at Alabama Adventure this afternoon for live weather at 5:00 and 6:00… I won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video due to the travel schedule. But, J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information as the storms of summer crank up….
