This mesoscale discussion covers the southern half of Georgia into SE Alabama and northern Florida.
ACUS11 KWNS 291438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291438
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-291645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF AL/GA/FL
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291438Z – 291645Z
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN PULSE SEVERE AND
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW…AND A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST SHOW AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 TO 3500 J/KG CLOSER TO THE
COAST…AND NEAR 2500 J/KG FARTHER INLAND. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES…INCLUDING THE GULF AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES…AND A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL
GA AND SERN AL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF TWO SHORT
WAVES 1) ACROSS NRN AL/GA AND 2) NEAR THE WRN FL PANHANDLE MOVING
INLAND FROM THE GULF. OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERAL LINE AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS.
FLOW IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED TODAY…WITH NEAR 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE SFC
TO 3 KM LAYER. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IMPROVED FLOW
WILL INCREASE RISK OF DMGG WINDS IN PULSE STORMS AND MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. GIVEN
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN AS WELL.
..HURLBUT.. 06/29/2008
