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We expect a slow increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms across Alabama during the next few days with deeper moisture moving up from the south, and a weak front approaching from the north. We will rise into the low 90s today, but both the NAM and the GFS suggest we won’t get out of the 80s tomorrow and Friday because of the increase in shower activity.
The front will stall out and dissipate over Tennessee by Friday, leaving us in a moist airmass over the weekend. That, of course, means a continued chance of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS introduces the idea of an eastern U.S. upper trough pushing a surface boundary down into South Alabama Monday; if this happens to be correct the northern half of the state will be mostly dry Monday and Tuesday with lower humidity. We won’t buy into that idea just yet; for now we will roll with a persistence forecast next week; lets watch the next few model cycles to see if that trend continues. Dry, continental air just doesn’t make it this far south too often in July.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS keeps the hottest weather in the nation over the western states; looks like near average temperatures and rain through the rest of July.
BERTHA: NHC keeps Bertha as a category one hurricane for the next few days; the system is expected to recurve east of Bermuda, in the open Atlantic, and is no threat to the U.S. mainland at this time. The rest of the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet.
AT THE BEACH: Pretty standard summer weather through the weekend; about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with a few scattered showers and storms around. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s. We note the U.S. coast guard reported a few small waterspouts just offshore yesterday.
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