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Should have known better… leaving afternoon showers out of a July forecast is not a really smart thing to do, you know. Widely scattered showers formed at mid-afternoon across parts of Central Alabama in a weak low level convergence zone. We actually had one pop up this morning near the Cullman/Blount County line. Away from those showers, the day is hot and hazy with temperatures generally in the low 90s.
GULF DISTURBANCE: We continue to watch the disturbed weather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with interest. Getting more confident that the deeper moisture from this will remain generally east of Alabama, but we will probably see some increase in the number of scattered showers and storms over the eastern third of Alabama Friday and Saturday. Still some risk that this could become a tropical depression during the next 24 hours, but the effect one way or another will be heavy rain for the Florida peninsula today, then for Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday as it moves northward.
I also checked the Florida State WRF (see the Weather Xtreme video), and it agrees with the GFS that the primary surface low will move from near Tampa Bay to a point near Athens, GA by late Friday. Again, this will keep the deeper moisture east of Alabama.
OUR WEEKEND: I think we sure need to mention at least a chance of an afternoon shower or storm both Saturday and Sunday in scattered spots; the best coverage should be close to the Georgia border. Highs in the low 90s, very typical weather for mid-summer.
NEXT WEEK: Some hint that a surface boundary from the north could bring an increase in the number of showers and storms during the first half of next week.
TROPICAL ISSUES: Bertha continues to move slowly out to sea; no threat to land with the system about 400 miles northeast of Bermuda.
Invest 94L looks good; it could become a tropical depression soon. It is moving through the Windward Islands, and will journey through the Caribbean in coming days. Upper air winds will become rather harsh tomorrow and Friday, but if this survives it might have a chance at entering the Gulf of Mexico.
A disturbance in the Southwest Caribbean could become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours; it is very close to Central America, however, which will probably limit development.
And, another good looking wave will come off the coast of Africa tomorrow. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and more details on all of this.
AIR QUALITY ALERT: A code orange air quality alert has been issued for Jefferson and Shelby Counties for tomorrow due to ozone and particulate pollution.
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Thanks to the Inverness Rotary Club for their hospitality today… I was the speaker at their lunch meeting. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
