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First off, the Alabama weather scene will remain very uneventful through Monday, with hot, hazy days and only a slight risk of a shower each afternoon. Highs will remain in the 90 to 95 degree range. We also note that an air quality alert has been issued for Jefferson and Shelby Counties for tomorrow (code orange).
TROPICS: The system just east of Savannah has the potential to become a tropical storm or depression within the next 24 hours… it will move northeast, just off the coast of the Carolinas, with heavy rain at times and gusty winds. The proximity to the coast should keep this from becoming a major tropical system, but it will mean breezy and wet weather all the way up into coastal New England by late Sunday and Monday. All of this moisture will stay well to the east of Alabama.
The system in the Central Caribbean has a good chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. The 12Z models carry this across the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico by Monday. As I am writing this, the 18Z model data rolled in and is in good agreement. Sure looks like this is headed for either northern Mexico or the southern tip of Texas; the GFDL remains the outlier as it wants to turn the thing north toward the Louisiana coast. Interests along the western Gulf Coast will need to watch this one closely; once it comes off the Yucatan it could strengthen rather quickly with favorable upper air winds and warm water below.
NEXT WEEK: While the GFS has backed off on the idea of an approaching front influencing our weather by Wednesday, it now has the moisture plume from the tropical system over South Texas feeding up into the region by the end of the week, with some potential for beneficial rain. This, of course, is all speculation now. We will have a much better idea on how the tropical system will behave by the time we talk Monday.
JASON TAKES IT ON THE CHIN: If you missed out 11:00 a.m. news today, check this out!
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We had a great time at our annual intern lunch today; I will post some pictures shortly. Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme video updates over the weekend; my next video will be here Monday morning, bright and early at 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!
