Bertha is expected to become extratropical on Sunday over the North Atlantic, but not after she has enjoyed a long, long life. Especially for a July storm. No other July storm has ever lasted as long (over 16 days) or been a hurricane as long (over 8 days.) No other July storm or hurricane formed as far to the east either. But fortunately, Bertha has not caused much in the way of havoc, just some gusty winds and high surf on Bermuda.
Bertha is racing northeastward at 25 mph over the North Atlantic southeast of Newfoundland. Top winds are 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed today off the South Carolina coast. It has been steadily moving northeastward at about 6 mph and will be passing just offshore of the Outer Banks on Sunday afternoon. Late tonight, it is 170 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras. Top winds are 45 mph. It is not expected to strengthen beyond strong tropical storm intensity and it will head on out to sea after today.
Our main attention is drawn to the disturbance in the western Caribbean. Convection associated with the system has continued to increase and a tropical depression is likely to form at some point on Sunday.
With warm ocean temperatures and a low wind shear environment, intensification is likely. But the system will run into the Yucatan, which will weaken it. It is expected to re-intensify after it emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
There is generally good consensus among the models that it will move into northeastern Mexico or extreme southern Texas. The threat to the North Central Gulf Coast appears to be minimal.
