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Central Alabama is on a roller coaster of temperatures as once again a substantial cold front has moved through the area bringing us another round of fairly chilly weather. Morning clouds across most of North and Central Alabama may result in a few snow flurries but clouds should begin to break up by late morning giving way to some pretty good periods of sun for the afternoon hours. As colder, drier air continues to pour into the area we should see highs only in the middle 40s for most spots.
But hold on because we dip back to freezing on Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon we should be seeing the mercury in those thermometers climbing into the lower 60s – woohoo!! The upper flow will become less amplified Sunday and for much of the week ahead as the main traveling upper disturbance stay well to our north. Unfortunately this does not mean good weather for us as we stay somewhat moist, but the bulk of the cold air is well to our north. In fact, we could hit highs around 70 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday, the warmest temperatures so far in 2014 since we hit 65 degrees back on January 11th.
While the bulk of the traveling weather systems will remain in the heart of the westerlies well north of us, it still means that frontal systems will drag into the area, so with a fairly decent supply of moisture, we will see some risk of showers and rain for much of the upcoming workweek. Even so, the warm temperatures will feel nice. And I bet my jonquils will be responding as they have already pushed upward in my flower beds and I may just see some blooms before next week is over.
But the GFS is painting another big change in the pattern by next Saturday as another deep trough comes into the Central US out of the Rockies. This is likely to produce a strong surface low in the vicinity of Missouri which could bring another substantial winter storm to the Upper Midwest as well as the potential for strong to severe storms across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. This does verge on voodoo, so much can change before we reach that point, however, it will be careful scrutiny as we watch the evolution of this system in future model runs.
The long range maps from the GFS 06Z run once again show cold conditions for the eastern half of the country with the return of the long wave trough position over the eastern US. This could potentially spell additional winter storms for the Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. But this is voodoo country, so it is all speculation for now and may well change in the next model run.
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Thanks for staying tuned to the Blog. I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. And you should mark your calendars as we are putting the finishing touches on a Storm Alert Xtreme for early March. The event will be held at the Pelham Civic Center on Wednesday, March 5th, beginning at 6:30 pm. Doors will probably not open until about 5:45 pm due to an event going on just before the Storm Alert Xtreme. This one will feature the basic storm spotter training and should last about two hours or so. Hope to see you there if you have an interest in the weather and becoming a trained storm spotter. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
