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BIG WARM-UP: After a frosty morning with lows mostly in the 30s, we are in the 70s at mid-afternoon with a sunny sky. Way up north, an intense weather system over the High Plains is producing blizzard conditions across parts of the Dakotas, but that system won’t bother us.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Generally dry and warm weather continues. We project a high in the upper 70s tomorrow, and the high Wednesday afternoon will be around 80. We do note the 12Z run of the NAM model tries to bring a few showers into North Alabama tomorrow morning on the tail end of the system moving up into Canada, but we will reject that due to the very dry air over Alabama and stick with a dry forecast. We will see a decent amount of sunshine both days.
TO THE WEST: A major upper trough will move out of the Rockies, and bring a severe weather threat to parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow and Wednesday. All of this will be well to the west of Alabama; SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up for places like Oklahoma City, Dallas, Tulsa, and Wichita.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A deepening surface low will move northeast through the nation’s heartland, and the trailing front will help to trigger strong to severe storms Thursday and Thursday night as far east as Memphis and the Mississippi Delta. Here in Alabama, the sky will become mostly cloudy, and a shower is possible Thursday, but a pretty decent part of the day should be dry. And, it will be warm with a high around 80 degrees.
The band of showers and storms will move into Alabama Friday, but with the primary dynamic support passing far to the north, severe weather isn’t expected in our state. There will be a pretty decent degree of instability (surface based CAPE values of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg), but wind fields are forecast to be weak with very little shear. Any severe weather on Friday should be north of Alabama.
OUR WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS has a dry airmass over the northern half of Alabama both Saturday and Sunday, and it keeps the rain over the far southern counties of the state; places like Mobile and Dothan could see wet weather on both days. It will be a little cooler over the weekend, with a high around 70 degrees.
We do note the European model (the ECMWF) brings moist air back into North Alabama with some risk of rain Sunday into Monday of next week, but we will continue to side with the drier GFS model for now. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS develops a strong surface low east of Alabama around Wednesday April 9 along with a deepening upper trough over the eastern quarter of the nation. If this solution happens to verify, that could set up a late season frost possibility around April 10. I still think it is too early to plant anything that would harmed by frost or a freeze.
AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny mild days and fair nights along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Thursday (although there could be some morning fog later this week). Showers and storms return Friday into the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s along the immediate coast, with 70s just a few miles inland. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 60 degrees.
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I had a great time today visiting the kindergarten students, and third graders at Rock Quarry Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
