An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
The atmosphere really was worked over by the large complex of thunderstorms that moved through Central Alabama yesterday afternoon. Rainfall at most hourly observing sites was not impressive including Birmingham 0.19, Tuscaloosa 0.14, Anniston 0.65, and Gadsden 0.14. But some spots got quite a downpour with 1 to 2 inch amounts estimated by radar. So the challenging question facing forecasters today is just how worked over was the atmosphere and can it recover enough for more showers today?
I think the showers will be less numerous today, however, any that do develop could become severe with damaging wind the main threat along with marginally severe hail. The morning radiosonde run from the Shelby County Airport will provide a clearer understanding of what we can expect later today. Without that data, it appears that the greatest threat for thunderstorms will remain off to our northwest as indicated by SPC. This is also the solution seen in the high resolution NAM.
A strong short wave will be moving through the flow from Missouri northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes area. This will be the focus for additional storm development today and is the primary reason for flash flood watches in parts of Arkansas, West Tennessee, southern Missouri, and parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. This short wave will not extend far enough south to affect us, however, the thunderstorms that it produces will lay out some boundaries which may become the focus for additional storm development on Sunday, maybe even Sunday morning.
Another strong short wave comes into the Central Plains on Monday and Tuesday keeping the weather unsettled. The GFS and the ECMWF have similar solutions at midweek so confidence in the forecast to this point is pretty good.
That short wave trough moves by on Thursday but we begin to see differences in the model solutions. The GFS is not nearly as bullish on rain as the ECMWF. Without an air mass change, it seems like the ECMWF is probably a better solution with more and greater widespread showers.
By Friday and Saturday, the upper ridge from northern Mexico begins to push into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. But there continues to be a general weakness in the upper air pattern which keeps showers active for much of the Southeast US.
TROPICS: NHC is keeping an eye on an area of disturbed with in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. A reconnaissance aircraft found wind close to tropical storm force yesterday afternoon, however, the area remains so close to land with a general westward drift, so there is some question as to how much more development we’ll see before it moves over land. All indications are for the westward drift to continue so the likelihood of additional development seems low.
GULF COAST WEATHER: No weather woes at the beach. Highs will be in the mid 80s each day with overnight lows in the mid 70s. There will be more sun than clouds, with only a slight chance of a passing isolated shower or storm in the afternoons. For the next week or so, fairly typical June weather is expected along the Gulf Coast. Water temps are around the 80 degree mark.
Looking out into voodoo country, or Week 2, the GFS is showing a substantial trough along the East Coast which would signal some cooler air for the eastern half of the US. But that northwesterly flow could also signal large thunderstorm complexes moving southeast our of the Central US. I like the idea of cooler!!
And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…
| James Spann | Charles Daniel | Bill Murray |
| Brian Peters | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
