We are beginning to see some storms develop across western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The atmosphere in these areas, as well as over northern Alabama, is very unstable today. Storms are expected to reach severe limits throughout the afternoon, and will be capable of producing damaging winds. The SPC is currently monitoring trends in these areas, and may issue a severe thunderstorm watch later this afternoon across northern Alabama.
AREAS AFFECTED…NERN MS…NRN AL…MIDDLE/SRN TN
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072032Z – 072300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT
SUMMARY…THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS…AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION…A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING ORIENTED
ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED AXIS IS CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO N-CNTRL MS. WITH
AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE…STORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED AMIDST
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BUT DIURNALLY DEEPENED PBL CIRCULATIONS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN 30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
BOLSTERING DEEP SHEAR…MULTICELL CLUSTERS — POSSIBLY GROWING
LOCALLY UPSCALE — MAY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING…INTENSE CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN WW
252 MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SVR RISK.
BEFORE THAT TIME…THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT COULD PRECLUDE A
GREATER-COVERAGE EVENT FROM OCCURRING.
