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As I’ve heard it said, there is no rest for the weary. And that saying sure seems to apply to our current weather situation which remains challenging. And there is no lack of challenge with an upper closed low to deal with in the days ahead plus some interesting tropical mischief in the longer range.
This morning the radar is clear after a large cluster of storms moved through Central Alabama during the overnight hours producing some widespread wind damage in the form of downed trees and power lines. We should see some nice sunshine for the morning hours. A large cluster of storms was already ongoing in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas and the atmosphere over the Southeast remains moist and unstable. By the middle of the afternoon I expect to see the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms but the main action should be another large cluster of thunderstorms that will move into and across Central Alabama this evening. The instability remains high so the threat of damaging wind and large hail is there, but fortunately the shear appears weak so the threat for tornadoes is very low. Due to very high precipitable water values – from 1.5 to 2 inches – heavy rain will also be a concern for potential flash flooding.
So that takes us through round one. But behind this quickly moving system producing round one comes an upper closed low Monday over Nebraska which will be slow to move eastward. This essentially keeps the Southeast US moist and unstable for the first portion of the week ahead as we try to time small short wave impulses coming from the closed low. This means that we stay warm – highs in the upper 80s – and we maintain thunderstorms in the likely category.
There seems to be a little change in the pattern during the latter part of the week as an upper ridge noses into the area from the southwest. The upper ridge noses in a bit stronger a week from today, but without a true air mass change, we’ll continue to see daily chances for storms just not as widespread in coverage as the first half of the week.
Then we get out into voodoo country and the GFS provides us with plenty of material for speculation with the development of a tropical system in the vicinity of the western tip of Cuba that moves pretty steadily northward into the Central Gulf Coast. But you know how voodoo is – this might be Arthur and it might be gone tomorrow. This is what makes voodoo speculation so much fun! Regardless of the tropical development, there appears to be no solid sign for any kind of significant air mass change so we stay unsettled with daily shower chances.
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I had a nice time at Alabaster’s CityFest yesterday afternoon. Made a complete fool of myself on the Water Wobble, but it was fun and much more of a workout than I expected. James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Stay connected with the blog for further updates on the weather affecting Central Alabama. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
