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Anyone remember the song by Johnny Rivers?
“Summer Rain taps at my window
West wind soft as a sweet dream
My love, warm as the sunshine
Sitting here by me
She’s here by me”
I do think raindrops will be tapping at our windows this afternoon and tonight as an unusually strong surface low (for August) moves across Alabama and the Deep South. The low this morning is a little east of Shreveport, Louisiana, and is taking the trip right down I-20.
The NAM is now printing 1.14″ during the next 36 hours for Birmingham, while the GFS goes wild and crazy with 2.25″. The NAM is probably closest to being correct for us, although some two to three inch totals are certainly possible for South Alabama, where SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather today. Based on the strength of the surface low, I would not be shocked if a few tornado warnings are needed today over the southern half of Mississippi and Alabama.
And, on top of everything else, many communities will stay in the 70s all day today thanks to the clouds and rain. I don’t think the news folks will have to use the dreaded “heat tips” today!
THE DAYS AHEAD: As the surface low moves east of Alabama tomorrow, drier air moves into the state. The rain should end very early in the day, and the sky should become mostly sunny by afternoon. Thursday and Friday look generally dry with only a small risk of any one spot getting wet, and afternoons will be warmer with a high around 90 on those days.
OUR WEEKEND: Moisture levels increase, and we will bring back the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday; highs will be in the upper 80s.
The weather looks rather unsettled into the first half of next week with scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday through Wednesday.
TOPIC: TROPICS: Our twin waves in the Atlantic are looking better and better, and both are candidates to become tropical storms in coming days. The lead wave seems to be headed for the Bahamas; from there it could be a problem for the East Coast of Florida, with some potential for entry across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. All speculation at this point.
The models are actually more bullish on the second wave; it turns northward in response to a weakness in the ridge north of the system in about 96 hours, but there is a decent hint that this one could turn to the left again, toward the East Coast of the U.S., perhaps as a significant hurricane next week. Again, all speculation. All we can do is wait and watch; watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and satellite images.
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I am off to the beautiful campus of Mississippi State University today where I will be speaking late this morning; I should be able to crank out an afternoon Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 or so unless we have severe weather issues ongoing at the time. Looking forward to BBQ from the Little Dooey at lunchtime today!
