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Dry air is the story for much of Alabama through the weekend, with mostly sunny warm days and clear pleasant nights. Afternoon highs around 90; lows in the 60s. The deeper moisture will be from Texas and Louisiana northward to Nebraska and Missouri. Some folks in that general region could see some flash flooding issues by early next week as daily rounds of showers and storms get the ground saturated.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS still hints generally dry weather here for the first half of next week, although we will mention “widely scattered afternoon showers” each day because this is August, after all…
TROPICS: It looks more and more like the tropical wave just northeast of the Leeward Islands will turn north before reaching Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Considering the mean trough that has been over the eastern U.S. this summer, that makes sense, and model agreement is excellent. Looks like a hurricane (Fay) will be turning northward through the Bahamas; but it could be close enough to the Florida East Coast for some problems. I still think there will be lots of nervous people from Key West to Jacksonville early next week.
Everyone from Key West to Cape Cod will be watching closely, in fact. New Orleans and Mobile folks are breathing easier, but I caution you models can be dead wrong, and hurricanes do what they want to to regardless of what we write on some weather blog. We will be watching.
The trailing wave remains very disorganized this morning.
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I sure enjoyed speaking the kids last night at Green Valley Baptist Church for the RA/GA kickoff. What a great crowd! Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon.
