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Never a dull moment in the weather department. Areas of showers occurring across portions of the Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Northwest Florida, and Louisiana. All of this in response to a general troughiness over the eastern part of the US. So it looks like another day with a good deal of clouds, some showers though not everyone will see rain, and temperatures in the 80s with some spots probably not seeing highs above 82 and other spots that get more sun approaching 90.
But our attention is also focused on the tropics. Fay has managed to go from east to west across the rugged terrain of Hispaniola and seems to be holding her own. Early morning satellite imagery showed a big burst of convection off the southwestern coast of Hispaniola. And it looks like the center of the storm will be coming off the land soon. Water temperatures along the south side of Cuba look pretty warm, so I do expect to see the storm grow a bit stronger. Terrain across Cuba is not quite as rugged at Hispaniola, so if the center can stay over water, some strengthening is likely even with some of the circulation over Cuba. Models are in pretty good agreement with the tracks clustered along the west coast of Florida.
The future course of Fay is still in question, but it could have an impact on Alabama. It would only take a slightly more westward course to do that. As it stands with the current NHC track, Alabama would be primarily on the western or drier side of the system that could impact us around Wednesday. And to complicate the forecast for Fay, the active series of short waves moves through the westerlies will make it tricky as to whether Fay will get picked up and move quickly off to the north and northeast or get missed and linger over the eastern Gulf or Southeast US. So all eyes will be on Fay and her future course.
Showers should be much fewer tomorrow and into the first of next week as Fay gets closer and the troughiness over the eastern half of the country becomes less pronounced. This will mean highs and lows getting back to something more typical of this time of year with highs around 90 and lows around 70.
No specific areas are outlooked today for severe weather though SPC is watching New England, the upper Great Lakes area, and West Texas for thunderstorm development.
While August has been unusually cool for Central Alabama, the GFS is now pointing to a return of a large ridge during the last week of August. It is August and heat and August go together, so there is not a lot of reason to doubt the long range prediction. But if Fay can give the Southeast a good dousing, soil moisture will help to keep highs in check and perhaps we won’t see excessive heat.
Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I’m off with my daughter today to do some more touristy kinds of things like a trip on the Chicago River. I really enjoyed my trip to 1500 feet and the 103rd floor of the Sears Tower yesterday afternoon with great visibility and lovely clear skies. I hope you have a great Saturday whatever you plan to do. I’ll have the next video posted by 8:00 am or so tomorrow morning. God bless.
-Brian-
