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We saw a few showers across Central Alabama yesterday but they were pretty widely spaced. I had thought we might see a few more than what actually occurred. But this morning we’re seeing some drier air across Central and North Alabama. Dew points in the Tennessee Valley were in the upper 50s with lower 60s in central sections while the deeper moisture was across South Alabama and the Gulf Coast where values were in the lower 70s. This should keep the bulk of the showers to the south of Montgomery area.
And that pattern will continue into the first of the week as the upper trough inches further east away from Alabama. But then our attention turns to Fay and her future course. And that’s where the water gets somewhat murky. The computer guidance seems to be clustered along two tracks. The official NHC track and slightly more than half the models favor a course up the spine of Florida. But some of the later 06Z model runs are clustered a bit further west on a track that might bring the storm center to the coast between Mobile and Apalachicola. This is a situation that will have to be watched carefully since the overall pattern suggested by the GFS suggests some uncertainties in how Fay will respond to the synoptic scale pattern. So at the moment, confidence in the future course of Fay is not high. And of course, should the track be further west away from the Florida peninsula, Fay could easily take advantage of the warmer water and intensify perhaps to a Cat 2 or Cat 3, but that is speculation at this time.
The NHC guidance and GFS also indicate a potential for Fay to stall off the Southeast US coast toward the middle of the week. Stalling storms then take paths determined by small scale features, so there is no skill in trying to make any predictions with that scenario.
QPF forecasts suggest 6 to 8 inches of rain for much of the Florida Peninsula, but the current forecast track would keep Alabama on the dry side of the storm.
Toward next weekend a front comes into the picture – confidence definitely lacking here – which might bring a round of enhanced rain chances for us.
Voodoo country maintains the trend of building a very strong, hot ridge into the Southeast US, so August could be ending on a relatively dry and hot note. But that is voodoo right now but supported by climatology.
Great time exploring Chicago yesterday. Saw the Blue Angels, took a tour on the Chicago River with some fascinating commentary on the architecture of the nearby buildings, visited the Apple Store on Michigan Avenue (again!!!), and enjoyed temperatures in the lower 80s. Off on more adventures today with a planned stop at the Field Museum where I have a date with a tornado.
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-Brian-
