Tropical Storm Fay looks like it is gaining convection tonight as it passes between Haiti and Cuba.
There are several signs that it is beginning to develop. Pressures are falling in the environment surrounding the storm. Deep convection is forming around the center.
The future track of the storm is dependent on the timing of a northward turn into a weakness in the ridge of high pressure that extends into South Florida.
The future intensity depends on time over water and land interaction.
The sneak peeks at the higher resolution NAM tonight indicate that Fay will follow the track we have been describing, perhaps a little further west, which will take the storm a little further north. The NAM is predicting a lndfall near Tampa Tuesday afternoon or night.
The NHC track is about the same, maybe a slight amount further west. The eventual landfall will be on the western coast of Florida, likely between Fort Myers and Tampa. But we caution that this forecast is still rather uncertain, despite the apparent agreement of the models. People from the Alabama coast eastward to the Florida Keys must stay abreast of the latest developments.
Evacuations may begin in the Florida Keys as early as 8 a.m. Sunday morning according to emergency management.
