An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the video on iTunes by clicking here.
Finally getting more comfortable with Fay’s short term track this morning. Models and NHC are in pretty good agreement; the system moves into the Florida coast, south of Tampa Bay, on Tuesday as a minimal hurricane. Very close to the track of Hurricane Charley in 2004 (but considerably weaker than Charley). Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the associated graphics with this discussion.
Fay has been on a track that has been keeping the system weak due to interaction with land. Even if Fay does become a minimal hurricane, the main threat to Florida will be from heavy rain and flooding. Sure, there will be some downed trees and power lines, but major structural damage isn’t likely if the NHC forecast is correct, and I think it is. Watch some of the cable news outfits, and they make it sound like the end of the world.
On the NHC track, Alabama will remain on the dry side of the system. Today, the weather should be mostly dry from Birmingham and I-20 north, with scattered showers possible to the south, south of a stalled surface front over Central Alabama. We will mention widely scattered showers and storms over North Alabama tomorrow, but the rain should not be widespread.
LATER IN THE WEEK: Assuming Fay behaves according to the NHC track, the big rain over the latter half of the week will remain over the eastern half of Georgia, the Carolinas, and perhaps East Tennessee. The GFS looks relatively wet here Wednesday and Thursday, but I am not sure that makes too much sense considering the track of Fay. The NAM is much drier, and probably the correct solution. But, anytime you have a tropical system involved, forecast confidence is very low. Just watch for changes in the forecast in coming days if you have something planned outdoors this week.
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST: If you have a beach trip planned this week, no real issues with Fay from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. The surf could be rough, but most of the wind and rain directly associated with Fay will remain well to the east.
MODEL MADNESS: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and see what the 00Z GFS does with Fay. It stalls the system east of Jacksonville this weekend, and then it backs up and moves southwest in response to a strong (5940 meter) upper high building over New England. Yep, that means Fay goes back in the Gulf of Mexico, and then it moves northward next week with landfall over Mississippi around Wednesday of next week (9 days from now). Absolute voodoo, but I would say this is certainly possible. Just unlikely; most likely Fay will rain itself out over the Carolinas this weekend.
I don’t even want to think about a voodoo land forecast for Alabama with the tropics coming alive.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center is scheduled to join us on tonight’s new show; it should be posted by 11:00 p.m.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
We will have running updates on Fay today and through the week, so have us on your RSS reader, or check in often. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
