I have been enjoying a refreshingly slow morning with my daughter in Chicago and watching Fay from afar. We’re headed out for the iMax Theater at Navy Pier in a little while to see the Dark Knight on the BIG screen.
And I just finished watching the Weather Xtreme Video with James Spann, so when I looked at the clock I thought, yup, the 12Z GFS is probably in, so I decided to take a look. And you are not going to believe this one.
James said the GFS solution from earlier this morning would probably be all gone, but no, it is even more exciting. The latest GFS model guidance continues the solution of stalling Fay in the vicinity of Jacksonville on Thursday/Friday. Then it brings it slowly across the northern portion of Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday evening. The storm parallels the coast to Mobile Bay coming ashore Sunday evening/Monday morning then whisking it north to near Memphis Tuesday evening and to near Cleveland on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Wow, Fay could be right up there with some of the longer lasting tropical systems IF the GFS is right.
I must say that I cannot discount completely the GFS solution. There appear to be some reasonably sound reasons why a stall and a loop and return to a westerly motion might occur. But forecasting that more than a day or two in advance is not something we’re skillful doing.
Since Fay is not a major storm by any stretch of the imagination and if the GFS solution should be correct, it is not likely to be a major storm. But it could be fun trying to figure out what she is going to do.
And I remember quite vividly Elena in 1985. The NGM, as I recall, was the big outlier when Elena DID make a nearly right angle turn and head for the central coast of Florida before disconnecting from the westerlies, stalling, and resuming a course that eventually took it back to the coast of Mississippi. So it can happen.
-Brian-
