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I think the short term forecast of Fay is now relatively easy; the longer term is the problem.
Fay is over Key West, and will move up into the Southwest Florida coast late tonight and early tomorrow. I am not sure the system can reach hurricane strength due to dry air that is entering the circulation from the west, and some westerly shear aloft. One way or another, the main impact will be very heavy rain and the potential for flooding over the Florida peninsula, especially the eastern half, through tomorrow.
MODEL MADNESS: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of the 00Z run; it stalls Fay in the Atlantic east of Jacksonville, and brings it back to the west/southwest this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. The next landfall is near Mobile Bay Monday of next week. Yep, this is an outlier, but we note the 12Z ECMWF does something similar; it moves Fay into the Georgia coast, then westward to a point near Auburn and Opelika early next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video to see for yourself.
I think that idea of Fay being forced westward has some serious credibility thanks to a strong high developing north of the system this weekend. Who knows; this thing just might bring Alabama some rain after all. And, the second landfall on the South Atlantic coast should be much more significant than landfall number one on the southwest coast of Florida.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We note a few small, isolated showers have popped up on radar this afternoon; we will mention the same thing for tomorrow. Most communities will be dry; any showers will be few and far between. The high tomorrow will be close to 90 degrees.
The GFS continues to be aggressive with showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to moisture wrapping around the upper low to the west. The NAM, on the other hand, is much drier, and probably closer to being correct. We will simply mention a chance of scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday and fine tune the forecast as we go along.
Beyond Thursday, all bets are off. It all depends on Fay. Can she turn around and come back at us from the east over the weekend? We will have several days to watch developments. Will be very interesting to see how all of this plays out.
VOODOO LAND: Looks like the tropics will stay active; watch the Weather Xtreme video for the latest on 94L (the wave in the Central Atlantic) and possibilities late this month and into early September.
AIR QUALITY ALERT: There is a code orange air quality alert for tomorrow for Jefferson and Shelby Counties… for particle pollution.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. will keep you updated on developments with our friend Fay.
