Mind you, I did not name her “Fickle Fay.” One of the persons who reads our blog suggests that name and I like it very much. She sure has thrown us some curve balls. One respected model even suggests that she will move southward after getting into the Atlantic, curve westward across the Florida Peninsula again and then approach the Alabama/NW Florida coast. I don’t want to believe that. BP (Brian Peters, not British Petroleum) sort of thinks that might happen. If it does, I have a semi-bet with him and he gets one-half of a barbecue sandwich. I have already promised the other half to Jason. If it does happen, I think I will go back to chasing drizzle and form a drizzle-chase team. I am good at that.
Enough of my silliness. Let’s get down to brass tacks. Here is a variety of information about Fay.
LANDFALL
It happened early this morning in the vicinity of Marco Island. We have a good friend vacationing there as we speak. Then it passed just east of Naples and at midmorning the center was passing west of Lake Okeechobee. The latest track forecast carries it up through the Florida Peninsula, maybe emerging into the edge of the Atlantic by the time it gets to Jacksonville, and then an amazing change. She is supposed to make a left turn and move across extreme South Georgia pretty much adjacent to the Florida border over into the SE corner of Alabama by the weekend. If that happens, there will be significant changes in weather forecasts along the way.
SPOT REPORTS
Fort Myers…heavy rain, north 28, gusts 47
Key West…cloudy, wind west at 10 (things are returning to normal)
Marathon…cloudy, wind SW 14, gusts to 25
Fowey Rocks…wind south, gusts to 45
East Gulf Buoy…wind north 16, gusts 18, 5-foot waves, water temperature 85
South Apalachicola Buoy…water temperature 85, 5-foot waves
Orlando…light rain, wind east 21, gusts 26 (The weather will worsen considerably.)
Ft. Pierce…steady rain, wind east 25, gusts 36
Punta Gorda…steady rain, wind north 29, gusts 39 (Where Charlie made landfall a few years ago.)
Southwest International Airport…heavy rain, north 28, gusts 41
Naples…steady rain, wind NW 12, gusts to 26 (weather improving)
West Palm Beach…heavy rain, south 18, gusts 31, visibility 1/2 mile
Miami…light rain, wind south 18, gusts 29
POWER OUTAGES
Media reports indicate 10s of 1000s of people without power in South Florida.
RAIN AMOUNTS
6.61 Marathon
7.64 Aberdeen
4.59 Lake Worth
5.35 Pembroke Pines
5.08 Parkland
3.61 Ft. Lauderdale
3.37 Five miles NE of Miami
8.01 Sun Valley
6.50 Marco
Those reports are mostly from volunteer observers. We will add reports from official stations including the largest cities later this morning. Complete reports are usually after 10:00 a.m.
FICKLE FAY IMPACTS
ORLANDO
Tropical Storm Warning all the way thorugh 4:00 tomorrow morning. Tropical storm conditions developed today and will continue tonight. Rain will be heavy with east winds gusting to around 40 today and tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. There will still be numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.
JACKSONVILLE
Flood Watch continues through Thursday afternoon. Also, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect with tropical storm conditions developing and continuing through Thursday. Very windy conditions through Thursday. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing through Saturday. Improving weather Sunday.
PANAMA CITY/FT. WALTON
A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, Wednesday and Thursday with similar conditions through the weekend. High temperatures 85 to 92. No mention of strong winds in the official NWS forecast where we are extracting these notes.
TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG
Numerous showers and thunderstorms today, tonight and Wednesday and still a good chance on Thursday. Winds gusting to about 25 today and tonight.
GULF SHORES/ALABAMA COAST
A good chance of showers and thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing on through the weekend. High temperatures 88 to 91.
ESTIMATED FUTURE RAIN
We have a daily product that we refer to called the QPF (That stands for Quantative Precipitation Forecast. I prefer to call it total rain expected.). The chart this morning that covers the 5-day period from 6:00 a.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Sunday is astounding. These are the projected amounts, and remember this is only computerized guidance and should be taken with a grain of salt instead of a frosted brown sugar cinnamon Pop-Tart.
1.50 Birmingham
3.00 Heflin/Roanoke, east edge of Alabama
5.00 Columbus, GA. and Atlanta
11.78 Savannah, Myrtle Beach, Jacksonville
FINAL COMMENT
Don’t you know Atlanta would love to get a 5-inch rain…We will have a new Fay Advisory at 10:00 a.m. CDT. We are most anxious to see the new official track forecast chart. We will have other updates through the entire duration of Fay, including occasional spot reports.
