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THE ALABAMA STORY: First off, a quick peek at the radar this afternoon… a few isolated showers have formed over West-Central Alabama, mostly over Marengo and Sumter counties. Most of the state is dry right now, and I really think we will stay mostly rain-free tomorrow as we remain between the two major systems in the nation: Fay over Florida, and the upper low over West Texas.
Looks like any showers on Thursday and Friday will remain widely scattered, as we wait on the potential impact from Fay this weekend or early next week.
FAY IN THE SWAMP: Tropical systems don’t weaken much over the marsh land of South Florida, and that is the case with Fay. The system is just as strong as it was early this morning when it made landfall near Naples. Fay should emerge into the Atlantic late tonight or early tomorrow, where it could strengthen again.
LANDFALL NUMBER THREE: Remember, Fay technically made landfall at Key West yesterday, and near Naples early this morning, so, a third landfall seems likely in Florida tomorrow night or Thursday, most likely near or south of Jacksonville. I doubt if it has time to become a really serious hurricane, but there is a real chance of this being a minimal hurricane at that third landfall.
LANDFALL NUMBER FOUR? The GFS holds on to the idea of Fay moving into the Northeast Gulf Mexico by Friday, with a fourth landfall in Florida around Fort Walton Beach Monday of next week. We note the GFS is an outlier; most of the other models keep Fay rolling just north of I-10, moving to the west toward Southeast Alabama. I think the ECMWF solution is very interesting; it moves Fay as far west as Jackson, Mississippi by Monday.
For all of the model madness, please take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video on this post. You will see why we often have a headache in this business.
BOTTOM LINE: For Alabama, I think the best idea for now is to increase our rain chances on Sunday and Monday. These two days could offer some very beneficial rain, but remember, Fay is indeed very fickle, and if Fay turns north up through Georgia that would leave us mostly high and dry. We will fine tune the forecast as needed in coming days, and changes will be needed pretty often as this whole situation develops.
NORTHWEST ALABAMA SHAKER: A minor earthquake last night up in Northwest Alabama near Hamilton… see the details and maps here. Some folks reported feeling it.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information on Fay as the evening rolls along…
