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RIGHT NOW: We note some early morning showers over Northwest Alabama; those are associated with the upper low over Texas. We figure most of Alabama will be dry today, with the best chance of rain with that feature over Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana. In fact, any showers through Friday should be few and far between, and mostly over the western third of the state. Afternoon highs will be in the 90 to 93 degree range.
OUR FRIEND FAY: Our focus will remain on Tropical Storm Fay this morning. Models are actually in pretty good agreement with the NHC track, although the GFS and the ECMWF continue the idea of bringing Fay back into the Gulf of Mexico before a landfall somewhere on the central Gulf of Mexico coast.
NHC has backed off on the idea of Fay becoming a hurricane in the Atlantic because it simply doesn’t have time for strengthening; the NHC track brings Fay across the northern part of the Florida peninsula as a tropical storm during the next 36 hours, with a movement westward down I-10, to a point over the Mobile Delta by late Sunday night.
I think the guys at NHC will slowly adjust their track to the south, closer to the GFS and the ECMWF, and there is a very real possibility this thing gets into the far northern Gulf of Mexico before moving up into our state late this weekend or early next week. Could it become a minimal hurricane moving up into a place like Gulf Shores or Destin? Yes. Odds are unlikely that it has time to become a really serious hurricane, but you can’t take that idea totally off the table with the very warm SSTs lurking in the northern Gulf.
But, of course, this has been a difficult storm to deal with, and nobody knows the ultimate track and intensity, including NHC, big brains like Dr. Tim Coleman, meteorologists in the weather office at ABC 33/40, Dave Baird, Country Boy Eddie, or Sponge Bob.
CURRENT THINKING: The best chance of rain for Alabama directly from Fay will come Sunday night into Monday, and maybe even Tuesday. Initially the best rain coverage will be over South Alabama, then moving northward as Fay slowly recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies.
There is certainly potential for this to be a drought busting rain, but we sure cannot guarantee that right now.
BEACH TRIP? Lots of questions from folks that have a Gulf Coast trip planned this week. The weather will turn very wet by the weekend, but the weather should be generally pleasant between now and Friday for places like Gulf Shores and Destin with just a few scattered showers and storms. Then, increasing wind and rain will be the story for Saturday and Sunday. If Fay stays inland, it will be mostly rain. If Fay comes up from the Gulf of Mexico, there could be lots of wind to go along with the rain.
Once again, be sure the blog is on your RSS reader, or check in with us often for changes in coming days. This is one fascinating tropical system.
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I will be speaking to the Hoover Rotary Club today at midday; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
