I’m getting ready to head back to Central Alabama from Chicago, but I was looking over data this morning, so I thought I’d make a brief post. Nope, I have no idea where Fay is headed which is probably why I was looking over the data. I am not the BIG brain James refers to like my good friend, Dr. Tim Coleman, but I will offer up a few items anyway!!
Fay This Morning:
Fay looks the worst she has so far in her trek across Florida this morning – at least on radar. Visible satellite imagery was not yet available. Hardly any really serious rainfall but if you look at the larer picture like a regional radar image, Fay was influencing the weather from Brunswick, GA, to the Florida Keys.
Land:
Fay did something that I have not seen in over 40 years in this business – strengthen over land. I know the Everglades and South Florida are marshy and may not qualify well as “land,” but they still are. Central and North Florida are not marshy, so Fay will have a tougher time holding together. But, and there is always a ‘but,’ water is not far since the Florida Peninsula is not very wide where Fay is dancing.
Water Temperatures:
26.5 degrees Centigrade or so is the ‘magic” number for water temperatures. It’s interesting to note that the overall water temperature across the northern and northeastern Gulf is actually some of the coolest across all of the Gulf of Mexico. However, at 29 degrees C, that is still plenty to fuel Fay IF she can get her circulation over the water of the northern Gulf.
Track?
The future track is still unknown. I really think there is a good possibility that the NHC forecasters will inch their track slightly further south over the next few issuances as the ridge to the north of Fay becomes stronger to bring about a more westward turn. But it will probably be slow. Together with weak wind shear and those warm water values, I would not count Fay out just yet.
-Brian-
Note: An inland track would make my job over the weekend much, much easier.
