Fay has seen some ups and downs over the last several days with one of her best presentations coming during her trek across portions of South and Southwest Florida. First storm I can remember actually getting stronger over land – the marshy land of South Florida.
But Fay has been nearly stationary just off the east coast of Florida. So with the eye over water, why hasn’t Fay strengthened?
I’m sure there are a variety of reasons, but I think one of them may actually be the water temperature below Fay. I checked the buoy observations in the area around Fay just a few minutes ago, and please note that there are only two. But I was somewhat surprised to find water temperatures running 77 to 78 degrees. That’s pretty chilly for a tropical system looking for warm water.
Water temperatures just off the northern Bahamas climb up nicely to around 86 degrees.
So while other conditions impacting Fay all seem fairly good, those cool water temperatures are probably having a fairly substantial impact.
It’s interesting to note that water temperature values in the Northeast Gulf are running 84 degrees, so if Fay manages to stay a tad further south and get her center over those warmer waters, we could see her ramp up closer to hurricane force. It’s a wait and see situation right now.
-Brian-
